So if this is Toronto Canada and it's September 22nd, and this is the next UFC event, then it must be Jon Jones fighting someone for the UFC Light Heavyweight title. Dan Henderson? Nope, too injured. Lyoto Machida? Nope, too short of notice. Chael Sonnen? Nope, too risky. Let's see now; who's left? How about a 2-time former UFC Champion and a 16-year veteran that hasn't fought at light heavyweight since 2007. Enter one old school, tough as nails, power punching Vitor "The Phenom" Belfort! What's more, as a 6-1 underdog, he's a man with nothing to lose and everything to gain. Let's take a closer look at this fight and the entire card of UFC 152: Jones vs. Belfort.
Jon "Bones" Jones (16-1) vs. Vitor "The Phenom" Belfort (21-9)
Fights taken on short notice often make for compelling matchups, and this one may prove to be just that. Of all of the reasonable contenders, this one seemed to be the safest bet for Jones to adjust his training camp to in roughly 3 weeks, but when it comes to power, and the fact that Belfort is still a top level MMA fighter, the word safe may have to be graded on a curve. Even the most casual of MMA fans will tell you that anything can happen at any given moment, and that is in fact what makes the sport so spectacular. Belfort says he's training for a 1 round, 5-minute fight and nothing more. If you peruse his record, that kind of makes sense because 17 of his 30 fights have ended in the first round. His thoughts seem pretty simple. Kill or be killed in one round. If they're both still standing after 1 round, then you take the same mentality into the second round.
He's also changed up his camp and has been training with Rashad Evans and the Blackzillions in Boca Raton. Rashad was the only man in recent history to actually not look foolish against Jones and almost make it a fight at UFC 143 in June. That and the fact that he's Jones's ex-training partner and former mentor allow for some inside insight that may prove invaluable. However, and this is a large, looming, and most likely painful howeverÂ…there are two glaring issues here. The first is that one may debate the logic of stating that you want to finish the champ and his 84-inch reach in the first round. Jones expertly keeps his opponents at bay, seldom allowing them to even get within striking distance all the while picking them apart with kicks, punches, and elbows that have redefined the elusiveness of the phrase "stick and move". This guy's specialty is painfully wearing out his opponents and then making them look like boys fighting a man by the 2nd round and beyond. The second problem is Vitor's style. Once he lands on an opponent, his take no prisoners, close the gap and move them backwards, while his rapid fire punches pound them into unconsciousness is the best in the business. It's also straight ahead, straight forward, and in this case, straight into some lethal leg and head kicks. Vitor has never been known to work angles and that is the only way to get in the close distance and actually hit, much less do damage to Jones. The task then seems daunting to say the least and belays the underdog status with a somber dose of realism.
The Pick: Jones, and it shouldn't go the distance. Don't be surprised though if this does go into round 2 or 3 as Jones will most likely play counter attack in the first round, punishing and frustrating Vitor with his legs, reach, and elusiveness, wearing him down and setting him up for the kill, or in this case, the takedown. At that point, the elbows take over.
The X Factor: Belfort has the power to knockout anyone, so the question really is can Rashad show him something; some factor that will allow him to get in range and hurt Jones. If that happens just once, then Jones could be in trouble as Vitor's specialty is taking advantage of the millisecond that his opponent is hurt or confused.
Joseph Benavidez (16-2) vs. Demetrious "Mighty Mouse" Johnson (15-2-1)
This is in the sense of MMA a history making bout as the winner will be crowned the first ever UFC World Flyweight Champion (125 LBS). For those many haters out there that think it's not exciting to watch the lighter weight classes...wellÂ…take a closer look at these guys and you just might have a greater appreciation of the sport. The lighter weight classes throw more punches and land more punches than the heavier ones, and the speed and athleticism displayed is worth the price of admission. These two guys are my pick for the most competitive and exciting fight of the night.
The parallels run deep as they are both good friends, both have 18 fights under their belt, both have lost to Dominic Cruz while trying to win the Bantamweight Championship, and both have been tagged as too small to compete at that weight (135 lbs). That, coupled with their similar skill set, should make for perfect storm. There just isn't any weakness in either man's game, from boxing, to wrestling, to Jiu jitsu, to cardio, they are true Mixed Martial Artists. Johnson is pretty well recognized as having the fastest hands and feet in all of the UFC, and his frenetic pace is akin to a pinball on crack. If Benavidez isn't as fast, it's only by a hair, and his overall punching power is seemingly a greater advantage. The question is does speed frustrate power or does power eventually where out speed and end up in a stoppage?
The Pick: Benavidez in a close, tough, and exciting fight for two reasons. One aspect is simply that being a UFC Champion is the reason that he got into the sport. He is and always has been single-minded of purpose. That kind of willpower can make for just the slightest of an edge. The other factor is his aforementioned punching and kicking power. This fight may very well go the distance, and if it does, then fast guys tend to get slower, but power hitters can still maintain power.
The X Factor: The similarities of these guys skill sets make it hard to really know what's going to happen. One thing's for sureÂ…anything can happen at any momentÂ…don't blink.
Brian "The All American" Stann (12-4) vs. Michael "The Count" Bisping (23-4)
On paper, this looks to be a great fight if you like the stand-up war. Bisping is a former Kickboxer with fluid striking skills and very good footwork. Stann is a power puncher that will stand and trade with anyone and has 7 wins by KO/TKO. Bisping has boldly stated that he's going to do just that. One has to wonder though if that's just a ployÂ…just a little bait to get Stann to stand even more upright. Both of these men have won 4 of their last 5 fights and both of their losses have come by the same opponent in Chael Sonnen. While Bisping lost a frustrating 3-round decision, Stann's loss seemed to expose a gaping hole in his skill set. His ground game looked suspect as Sonnen toyed with him like a turtle on his back before submitting him in the second round.
The fact is that Bisping first came into the UFC as a pure Kickboxer and has gradually and substantially improved his ground game and Jiu Jitsu over the years. Will he stand and bang? No! He'll get in and get out. Stann's got too much power and Bisping will land short combos, including kicks, and then try and get out of range (which he is very good at). If he lands enough to start hurting Stann, then you may even see a takedown, and that's where The Count is sure to have an edge.
The Pick: Stann will win this by a KO. At some point, he's going to land, and at that point, The Count goes down for the count!
The X Factor: Legs, legs, and more legs. Remember, Michael Bisping is a Kickboxer and has excellent leg kicks. Brian Stann is a straight ahead fighter and very susceptible to a kicker with good footwork. A few well-placed kicks to Stann's front leg changes everything.
And for a few more surefire, can't miss, never wrong, 100% dead on picks:
- Matt "The Hammer" Hamill (11-4-0) beats Roger "The Hulk" Hollett (13-3-0)
- Charles "Da Bronx" Oliveira (16-2-0) wins over Cub Swanson (17-5-0)
