There’s now just one month away—give or take a few hours—from fans getting the privilege to pay 70 bucks or so to see the next chapter in the whole Gennady Golovkin-Saul Alvarez testosterone-filled soap opera.
For business, this fight will be good news for all those involved. For the sport, however, the good news may be fleeting.
Is there, realistically, any chance of Canelo-GGG 2 playing out to anyone’s satisfaction?
They’ll fight and put in an honest, earnest effort in pulling off whatever strategy they may employ, but, for many reasons, this is a pairing that seems destined to always disappoint.
From a stylistic standpoint, it’s just hard to imagine either fighter overwhelming the other and walking away with a decisive win.
Canelo does not have one-punch power at middleweight and Golovkin has a very solid chin. The Mexican would have to wear a fighter like Golovkin down before taking him out, but part of Alvarez’s strategy to stay upright and away from the Kazakh KO artist’s legitimately heavy hands is to box and move, rather than dig in and bang. Barring a bolt of lightning out of the blue or a perfectly-landed body shot (little birdies have told this writer of GGG’s possible susceptibility to gut shots), it seems unlikely that Canelo can stop Golovkin.
With Alvarez boxing and moving, it also may be tough for Golovkin to put him away. A world class fighter with solid skills and a defensive mindset will be able to survive most onslaughts. In their first fight, we certainly saw a Golovkin unable to hurt a movement-minded Alvarez and, also, a movement-minded Alvarez unable to hurt a come-forward Golovkin.
So, we’re likely looking at another trip to the scorecards—and that brings about another mess of issues.
Can Golovkin win a decision in Canelo’s home fighting base of Las Vegas? Will the backlash of a controversial decision last time out tilt the playing field to Golovkin’s benefit? No matter happens or what scores are rendered, almost everyone will probably be disappointed or flat-out angered by whatever the judges decide. The pro-Golovkin element will point fingers, the pro-Canelo element will point fingers, and both sides will clutch at outrage over this outcome and/or the one before.
In the aftermath of the big fight, expect even more griping, whining, and general discontent from fans and media to such an extent that the “big drama show” will become an anticlimactic event—just like in their first bout.
We can all dream of a conclusive finish to this rivalry, of Canelo putting GGG out with a crippling hook to the liver or of GGG knocking Canelo out cold with a headline-grabbing monster right hand. Maybe it could be something as mundane as either fighter putting on an absolute clinic, dominating his rival beyond a shadow of a doubt. But, the reality is that even with a conclusive finish, shade will be cast on this event from those who will then claim either PEDs cheating or age or size as some sort of mitigating excuse for the outcome. This is just the world we live in right now—a world where saving face for “your side” is all that matters and facts can be “alternative facts.”
All signs point to Canelo-Golovkin 2 being as frustratingly inconclusive as Canelo-Golovkin 1. This just seems to be one of those pairings, taking place at the absolute worst time in history for such pairings, guaranteed to ultimately disappoint.
Then, while the world laments another disappointing run at ending this rivalry conclusively, organizers will be planning a part three. “This time,” they’ll say, “matters will be settled, a feud laid to rest.”
But it won’t likely be settled there, either. Not in any real sense, anyway.
And if there’s a buck to be made from the continued unrest and lack of resolution, don’t discount the possibility of a part four.
For Canelo and Golovkin, and their respective teams, the possibility of doing this dance over and over against for big money payoffs sure beats the hell out of having to split up and face fighters like Jermall Charlo and Demetrius Andrade for high-risk bouts and comparatively low monetary rewards.