Hello fight fans and welcome to another Thursday gathered around my bulging sack, waiting on your weekly load of gooey, salty truth. This week, we have questions/comments regarding Jake Paul-Mike Tyson, Canelo Alvarez-Jaime Munguia, Tank Davis-Frank Martin, Tim Tszyu-Vergil Ortiz, Saudis in boxing, and more…
Tyson-Paul, Our Boxing Schedule, Our Crappy Boxing Media
Hi Paul-
Hope you are well. Actually writing this from beautiful Oaxaca City, MX on vacation (I remember seeing you are based out of MX) - anyways.
1. Jake Paul Vs. Mike Tyson: This fight has LOL all over it. Just such a strange fight in general without going into much detail on Tyson’s age and Paul’s somewhat recent boxing career. Also, for NETFLIX to stream this makes me scratch my head. This could literally be one of the most watched fights ever - what an honor (JK). I am getting hit up by many casuals to get my opinion on the fight. They think Paul doesn’t stand a chance because it’s Big Iron Mike, but something in me tells me it’s actually closer than the general public thinks, maybe even leaning to a Paul victory. What are your thoughts on this circus and what is your prediction?
2. We have a SOLID few months of boxing on the horizon. Which fights are you looking forward to overall and maybe toss in your potential upset pick as well?
3. Lastly, I try really hard to get the best sources for boxing journalism or insight. I feel like as of late, a lot of boxing “insiders” have been wrong about pretty much everything, but aren’t held accountable - and what’s even worse is that they are either backed by a big company (ESPN) or they are self-proclaimed insiders that a ton of people actually take their opinions seriously (Whatever the fuck or Whoever the fuck Rick Glaser is - Straight Bozo.) Thoughts on this trend and honestly just curious on why boxing insiders go to the extent of reporting false or misleading info.
– Alexis
Hey Alexis.
A lot to chew on here. Welcome to Mexico, btw. Let me tackle these in order.
1. I think you answered your own question when it comes to why Netflix is streaming Jake Paul vs. Mike Tyson. It WILL be one of the most watched prizefights of all time. No doubt, this is a freak show. But I’m not one of those “purists” aghast at this being made a “real” on-the-record fight. I think if they’re going to throw down with this silliness, at least make it an actual fight and not a play-act exhibition. I’ll be watching and I have no issue with two grown men fighting one another. If they can find a weak commission to sanction something like this (Texas), then there’s nothing we can do to stop it. So, whatever. It’ll be degrading for Tyson, though, if he ends up getting knocked out. But, again, he’s a grown man and can make his own decisions.
As for the fight, itself? Prime Tyson or even a semi-prime Tyson crushes Jake Paul inside of 40 seconds. Hell, even the washed-up 2005 Tyson walks through Paul. But Tyson is 57 and there’ll be a 30-year age difference versus Paul in this present tense. That will matter. Tyson hasn’t been in a real fight in 19 years and hasn’t won a fight in 21 years. That also matters. He still could win, though. And that’s a fucked up fact that should speak volumes about the competitive legitimacy of this bout.
Having the 8-round fight contested using 2-minute rounds will help Tyson. Using 14 oz. gloves should help Paul. If I had to make a prediction, I’d go with Tyson inside of two rounds...maybe? If it goes past two, it will be an ugly, cringey embarrassment.
2. There are a lot of good fights in May-June. The May 4 Canelo-Munguia card is great. Inoue should crush Nery in a compelling squash. Lomachenko should outclass Kambosos. Usyk-Fury, if it happens, should be interesting. Then, there’s Bivol-Beterbiev, Deontay Wilder-Zhilei Zhang, Tank Davis-Frank Martin, David Benavidez-Oleksandr Gvozdyk, Juan Francisco Estrada-Bam Rodriguez, and others. As for upsets-- don’t sleep on Jaime Munguia (I have an explanation further down in this Mail Sack). I wouldn’t be surprised if Fury shuts Usyk out. I also wouldn’t be surprised if Bivol does the same to Beterbiev.
3. Don’t get me started on boxing media. Just when I think it couldn’t get worse, it does. It’s at the point where we’re almost better off without a boxing media. It might be healthier if we just allowed garbage dumps of info on social media and let responsible fans sift through the nonsense.
There are a lot of reason for boxing media being in the sad state it’s in. Lack of accountability is one. The guys at the top are consistently wrong and oddly biased-- desperate for “scoops” and working with full knowledge that nobody will hold their feet to the fire for being wrong-- but they always seem to fail upward, getting new and better gigs because of their connections. And there are fewer and fewer media voices beneath them to fact check because everyone else is being squeezed out of the business. With fewer credible news sources and no honest voices to serve as checks and balances, rumor, half-truth, and propaganda reign supreme. That’s also where liars, knuckleheads, and shit-heads with agendas (like Glaser) fill a vacuum and chaos obscures reality. It’s a mess and, unfortunately, it’s not getting better.
Hating on the Saudis
Magno.
For the life of me, I can’t see why you have such an ax to grind with Turki Alalshikh and Saudi Arabia coming into boxing. Like it or not, they are getting fights done that weren’t going to get done otherwise, like Beterbiev-Bivol and Fury-Usyk and they’re even getting Deontay Wilder fights. That LA show is stacked, too. So, how in the world is any of this a bad thing? Fans are getting fights, fighters are getting paid. Maybe you’re just jealous that nobody in the US can get anything accomplished and they had to be shown up by a foreigner. Putting down his excellency and the efforts he’s making to help boxing is pure idiocy. You are a hater and it looks like you hate boxing, too.
– Dennis from Detroit
Hey Dennis.
As I said in Monday’s Notes from the Boxing Underground column, all of this is just another example of boxing people grabbing at short-term gain at the expense of the sport’s long-term health. OK, so we’re getting some fights now. And? Do we expect the Saudis to sponsor every show, forever? Do we expect established promoters inside the US to permanently play part-time roles in their own fighters' careers? Of course not. And when the Saudis eventually leave, boxing will be in the same spot it was before, having the same issues. By having this temporary crutch of Saudi money, working on shows where turning a profit is not an issue or a concern, we're just wasting time better served actually working on the important issues we need to address. Like I wrote, it’s similar to when promoters sold off the entire high-end of the sport to premium cable channels back in the 80’s. Fighters got bigger paydays, promoters got easy payoffs, and fans were actually happy that they were getting top shelf fights via the two premium cable channels. But, as we’ve learned, all that did was erect paywalls that separated the sport from the mainstream public and, in the end, all that easy money did irrevocable harm to the sport and its growth. Boxing needs to address its issues rather than waste its time on vanity events and quick money scores, especially by an entity that has to be viewed as inherently unstable.
Canelo-Munguia, Tszyu-Ortiz, Tank-Martin
Hello Paul.
I hope you and your family enjoy a nice Cinco de Mayo weekend.
I am going to start with the obvious. I have watched a lot of Jaime Munguia videos and I gotta say he might have a decent chance at winning if he exploits that excellent jab to the body he employs. I noticed Canelo was stopped many times from coming forward with Mayweather when he did this to him. I however, got to pick Canelo based on his ability to dismantle come forward fighters like Munguia and specially because I have seen Munguia get the bad part of exchanges during some of his fights. I will however say, I will not be surprised if Canelo loses due to his age and conditioning decreasing.
I might be a little bit controversial with my next point, but I expect Tim Tszyu to knock out Vergil Ortiz, I got 3 reasons to believe this:
-Ortiz has been hurt by a somewhat similar fighter to Tszyu (Kavaliuskas)
-Tim Tszyu's speed is underrated. I was impressed at how fast he looked against Fundora, he got that laser-like straight hand from his dad.
-Vergil Ortiz has not fought a real 154-pounder and you can make the argument Tszyu is the guy at this weight.
Last but not least, no-one is talking about this fight between Tank and Frank Martin and I understand why. Frank Martin does not possess any attribute that makes me believe he could trouble Tank with. Where do you think Tank goes from here? There is literally no one at 135 that can create excitement for him as every elite fighter has officially moved up to 140.
Best Regards.
– Miguel
Hey Miguel.
I think Munguia has a chance. Stylistically, he may be tailor-made for Canelo and, in terms of skill and experience, he’s way behind. But Canelo may be getting to the point where he’s close to being done. His recent efforts have shown a fighter who’s grown a bit jaded, a bit complacent, and, maybe, someone who’s not capable of shifting into that extra gear anymore. If anyone’s going to push a faded Canelo past the breaking point, it’s someone like Munguia who knows no other style than straight through an opponent at full speed. Canelo-Munguia should be fun.
I’ve been liking Ortiz over Tszyu since I saw the fight announced. But you make good points that may sway my opinion. Ortiz hasn’t faced a lot of punchers-- and there’s usually a reason for that, as we almost saw against Mean Machine. Plus, as you mentioned, he hasn’t fought a true 154-pounder yet. I like his fluidity and general skill set over Tszyu’s, but who knows what happens when he gets hit harder than he’s ever been hit before?
Frank Martin is very good, but the knock against him has always been that he fights at a steady pace-- just enough to win rounds-- but hasn’t shown the fire to take that next step to next-level performance. He’ll have to find a way to do that against Gervonta Davis, because Davis is ALL about that fire.
As for Davis? Shakur Stevenson will likely be a promotional free agent by the start of 2025, but that’s really about it, at least when it comes to high-end PPV-level fights at 135. A move up to 140 may be a “working with others” necessity. A rematch with Pitbull Cruz, for Cruz’s 140 lb. belt, remains a likely option, IMO.
Got a question (or hate mail) for Magno’s Bulging Mail Sack? The best of the best gets included in the weekly mailbag segment right here at FightHype. Send your stuff here: paulmagno@theboxingtribune.com.