It has been, give or take, two years since Showtime announced the Super Six tournament. Boxing politics being what they are these days, some fans may be more than a little surprised to see that the competition has made it to the final stage. Way back in 2009, Mikkel Kessler and Arthur Abraham were co-favorites to win it all. Kessler had the most extensive background, his only loss being to the unbeaten Joe Calzaghe, and Arthur Abraham was a vicious knockout puncher with literally a steel jaw. All that has changed, however, and the last men standing are Andre Ward, a fighter who came into the tournament known more for his amateur gold than his pro fistic glory, and Carl Froch, whose inauspicious entry into the tournament was a clutch, run, and fall decision against a slippery and skittish Andre Dirrell.
Now that the two underdogs are on a collision course, it must be noted that you could not have two fighters with two entirely different styles. Froch has more technical polish than most give him credit for, but he also has more than a bit of the brawler in him and loves war more than anything else. Like a much better version of that other Super Middleweight Librado Andrade, one gets the sense that Froch loves to be punched almost as much as he loves punching. One has to add, however, that he has a beautiful and awkward shoulder defense, which he uses to neutralize heavy hitters.
Ward, on the other hand, seems to hail more from another school. Floyd Mayweather's admonition that "there is nothing cool about taking punishment" could easily have been Ward's credo since his days in the amateurs. Ward's main asset is that he can change distances at will, and at speeds that his opponents cannot anticipate, he's halfway across the ring and before you know it, he's lunged in, landed two for every one you've thrown, and is cleverly smothering you and draining you of strength until the referee decides to intervene.
A lot of this fight might depend on who is refereeing, and where they're doing it. A referee who shuns clinching and breaks fighters before they can even embrace will probably favor Froch, who can stack points and punishment from all angles. A ref who is more lenient and willing to look the other way would allow Ward to discourage Froch from finding his rhythm. Son of God's spoil tactics might frustrate Froch into getting careless or chasing him out of the ring.
Froch might have a chance to catch Ward as he is either coming in or retreating from one of his blitzkriegs, but Froch is more puncher than counter-puncher. All of this, of course, means that this will be one of those fights that will turn off casual fans, but will be a real gem for the hardcore aficionados.
Expect to see quiet, defensive moments. Expect to see both fighters turning to the ref and complaining. A no-decision based on an errant headbutt might even be in the cards. In any event, comparing and contrasting purely in the power department, it must be said that Froch can knock Ward out, but Ward cannot knock Froch out. Ward has a paltry 13 knockouts, almost all of them in his earlier fights. Froch has tasted real bombs and has met the canvas, but never ever come close to saying, "Goodnight." Froch has a better KO percentage, but if he does manage to sap Ward, it will most likely be a knockout of the technical variety after an accumulation of punches when Ward lunges in and Froch manages to corner him on the ropes or along the turnbuckle.
Predictions are the nature of the beast and you can expect to see some major disagreements in the boxing community over the coming months (we have until October, after all). But the smart money would be to make Ward a marginal favorite. Neither Froch nor Ward have fought anyone exactly like the other, and if they're looking to find a carbon copy for sparring sessions, then they're searching in vain. Either way, this is going to be a messy back and forth affair. The Super Six might not end cleanly or without controversy, although both men have managed to remain gentlemanly up until this point.
The last critical factor is, of course, venue. Everything is subject to change in boxing (remember Froch thought he had the Abraham fight locked in England), but clearly the fairest route would be to give Froch a hometown reprieve. Three of his last four bouts have been grueling affairs on the road. All four of Ward's last fights have been in his native California. An October date in Nottingham with either three neutral judges or one American, one English, and one from an impartial country would be the sanest decision. Froch has done enough for the Union Jack flag to enjoy some of the spotlight that has been shining on Amir Khan and David Haye. Let the man fight in front of his countrymen and give Ward a chance to prove that he is as good as his Olympic gold. That being said, Froch has surprisingly expressed his interest for the fight to take place in Las Vegas, which would likely favor Ward given the close proximity to California.
Nevertheless, somebody is going home with that trophy. Now all we have to do is wait until practically Halloween. Trick or treat.