Since 2010, no fighter has seen their stock plummet as dramatically as former two-time welterweight champion Paul "The Punisher" Williams. Williams never seemed to be the same after his first brutal fight with Sergio Martinez, struggling mightily against Kermit Cintron, getting horrifically knocked out by Martinez in the rematch, and cumulating in the controversial win against Erislandy Lara last July. In the case of Japanese spoiler specialist Nobuhiro Ishida, he is still riding a high from stopping previously undefeated James Kirkland and finds himself again as the disposable veteran against an opponent looking to get back on track. Can the "Punisher" correct his ship and re-establish himself as a fighter to be reckoned with, or will the spoiler from the land of the rising sun set the boxing world ablaze with another sensational upset?
Paul Williams
Age: 30
Height: 6'1"
Record: 40-2 (27 KOs)
BoxRec Ranking: 4
Last Five Fights: 4-1 (0 KOs)
Nobuhiro Ishida
Age: 36
Height: 6'1"
Record: 24-6-2 (9 KOs)
BoxRec Ranking: 14
Last Five Fights: 4-1 (2 KOs)
Power: Williams
Speed: Williams
Technique: Ishida
X-Factor: Recent form favors Ishida
The reason why Williams has chosen Ishida as his opponent is because his camp sees him as an older fighter with very little power, but the numbers don't tell the story as much as the Williams camp would hope. Ishida is a low-mileage fighter who fights with a good jab and has speedy hands. He had enough pop to put Kirkland down three times, when the heavier fisted Alfredo Angulo only managed to do so once, and he is a naturally bigger fighter than Williams. Though his resume lacks any other names due to his almost exclusive appearances in Japan, the tools are ever present and Ishida's confidence is at an all-time high.
Ishida is as tall as Williams, so the height advantage is neutralized immediately, and because Williams fights against his strengths, he will be wide open for Ishida as he leans in hoping to do body work. When Ishida throws the straight right, he needs to sit down on the punch instead as it is the best weapon he has available to him. He will have to use movement to draw Williams in and crack him with the shot. Martinez, Cintron, and Lara all used movement, and Williams' leaky defense, to set up their power shots and found success almost every time. If Ishida is to make a run for the upset, he'll have to land early and often.
Williams may have never been taught how to adjust, which is not a shock to me because he also never learned how to fight using his superior height and reach, but if the same old Paul Williams comes in the ring, then he'll have a problem right away. One would hope the preparation for this fight included a heavy amount of defensive training, or maybe incorporated tactics that better suit his physical advantages as opposed to just throwing hundreds of punches. Though Williams is a come-forward fighter who likes to pressure fighters, he may want to reconsider his tactic after watching Kirkland charge at Ishida and eat canvas three times for his troubles.
The easiest way for Williams to win this fight is to fight tall and utilize every inch of his 81" wingspan to keep Ishida outside and catch him with uppercuts and hooks for trying to come in. By keeping Ishida out and limiting the amount of shots he absorbs, Williams can conduct a ranged attack to the body, which has troubled Ishida in the past, but he shouldn't target the body by making it a phone-booth fight. Quality should outdo quantity, at least for this fight, with Williams sitting on his punches when his opponent gets frustrated that he can't penetrate his reach and has to take a chance.
Alas, Williams will have to fight in a way he never has learned to, and thanks to his poor management and corner, he will find himself again taking a substantial amount of punches in an attempt to overwhelm Ishida with activity. Ishida is coming into the ring fully confident in his abilities, probably more so than at any previous point in his career, and doesn't intend on cashing out against Williams. He will gladly take the fight to Williams, who more than likely will be wide open for him to hit. Though another Lara-esque decision may happen again, expect Ishida to shock the world once again as he beats an ill-prepared and overconfident Williams.
As for the rest of the weekend's action, starting with the undercard, I like Tavoris Cloud to beat Gabriel Campillo in a tougher-than-expected fight and Chris Arreola to knock out ready-to-order opponent Eric Molina in four rounds. As for the Heavyweight title fight between Vitali Klitschko and Derek Chisora, I think Chisora will give the aging champion as good as he can, but then the bell for round two will ring and it'll only be a matter of time for the predictable Klitschko TKO.
Potshot Picks is 2-0 (100%) year to date.
Danny Howard can be reached for comments or questions at dhoward@fighthype.com, Facebook, or follow him on Twitter (@DBHOWARD126). Also don't miss an episode of FightHype Radio, the baddest two hours of boxing on the planet, starting at 8pm EST.