On Saturday, June 28, at the Mandalay Bay Resort & Casino, newly-crowned WBC super featherweight champion Manny Pacquiao and WBC lightweight champion David Diaz will battle in a 12-round rumble with Diaz's title at stake as Pacquiao makes his debut in the lightweight division. Don't miss all the action live on HBO Pay-Per-View, beginning at 9PM ET/6PM PT.
WHAT DOES IT MEAN...
We aren't getting Pacquiao–Marquez III so surely this fight is one that can't miss, right? It is certain that we will see Pacquiao challenged big time as he continues to enhance his legacy as a guy who fights, and beats, anyone and everyone, right? Right? Well…not so much. Bob Arum has done a masterful job with Diaz since he won the interim WBC title against Jose Armando Santa Cruz in August of '06. A controversial decision win against shopworn legend Erik Morales and a fight on the undercard of Pacquiao–Marquez II saw Diaz get some much needed face time. A win against a legend, a belt and a perceived lack of what is needed to beat Pacquiao…perfect!
There is some history at play here though. Manny Pacquiao is looking to become the first fighter ever to win titles from flyweight all the way up through lightweight. An impressive feat for certain, and one that is rumored to continue up through junior welterweight and down the road. After Diaz, the public hopes for the third Marquez fight and they may be in luck as Juan Manuel has decided to join Manny at 135, taking on Joel Casamayor in September. If they both win, it seems like a natural fit.
David Diaz comes into this fight as the prohibitive underdog and it's a role he is all too familiar with. The win against Morales was big for Diaz because it gave him an identity as he worked through a serious knockdown in the first round to come out the decision winner. A win against Pacquiao, who sits atop most pound-for-pound lists right now, would be huge. Diaz knows what's at stake here and he'll be at his best.
WHEN THE BELL RINGS...
There isn't a whole lot of time that needs to be spent on analysis here. Manny Pacquiao likes to dart in with his very quick feet behind a distance-sensing right hand while firing the straight left behind it. He'll also work in a right hook if he feels the straight left is being focused on, as well as an occasional uppercut when the opportunity arises. If you want to try to counterpunch Pacquiao, you better be prepared to react quickly; if you want to grind inside with him, you better be prepared to walk through a hailstorm of punches.
So what is David Diaz going to have to do? Walk through a hailstorm of punches, plain and simple. Diaz is the epitome of a grinder. He is going to come forward, deflect what you fire at him, back you up and go to work inside. Diaz can punch fairly well, not great, but he can take it very well too. He's a tough guy and no matter what, he is going to make you work, especially if you don't sport a size advantage over him.
Early on, Pacquiao will have a good deal of success, letting his hands go and banking rounds. In fact, I think he will probably look spectacular. But there are some rumors that Pacquiao's training was not what Freddy Roach hoped it would be and, against a tough grinder, that type of issue can be a real problem.
I won't be surprised to see Diaz dropped early in this one, but I will be surprised to see Diaz blown out of there. If Pacquiao isn't at his best, he could be in for a long night. After jumping out to that early lead, look for the fight to turn into a battle of attrition. In fact, a headbutt and a cut would not surprise me in the least with these two southpaws. David Diaz will try to establish that there is only one lightweight in the ring, and it isn't Pacquiao. The bottom line is that Diaz plans on using his size and getting to Pacquiao's body in an effort to wear him down over the long haul. Will it work? Time will tell.
THE CALL...
I'm not worried about the weight for Pacman because he has an extremely solid base. The guy has legs the size of a middleweight. I think he will carry 135 fine. His power may not be what it was and his speed may be a little burdened, but I do not expect it to be a big issue for him. He can still punch awfully hard and is faster than most.
David Diaz is a tough guy with a lot of heart, but his limitations in power, speed and skill are what helped him get this assignment. I do expect Pacquiao to be forced to work harder here than many think, partially because of how up for this fight Diaz will be and partially because Pacman did spend some of his training time wearing the promoters cap instead of the headgear. Look for Pac to come out early and look dazzling, but don't be shocked when Diaz starts to make up some ground in the middle to late stages of the fight. I don't expect a knockout here. Give me Pac by close, but clear decision in a fight that is better than a lot of people are expecting.