Don't miss a night of lightweight action on Saturday as Joel Casamayor defends his Ring Magazine world lightweight title against Juan Manuel Marquez at the MGM Grand Garden Arena in Las Vegas and televised live on HBO Pay-Per-View, beginning at 9PM ET/6PM PT. Plus, IBF, WBA & WBO lightweight champion Nate Campbell defends his titles against Joan Guzman at the Beau Rivage Resort in Biloxi and televised live on Showtime, beginning at 9PM ET/PT.
WHAT DOES IT MEAN...
2 fights, 4 fighters and there will only be one meaningful lightweight battle left to determine who the true champion is.
Joel Casamayor and Juan Manuel Marquez will be fighting for the lineage. The winner of this fight will be linked directly to the first lightweight champion. Not a titleist, not a belt-holder, not a paper champion but THE champion. In this era of umpteen sanctioning bodies and 5 times the number of straps, lineage is the one and only constant.
At the same time, a few thousand miles southeast of the Casamayor–Marquez clash, Nate Campbell will put his belts on the line against Joan Guzman. While this fight does not involve lineage, Campbell did beat Juan Diaz, the consensus top dog of the division, to earn his titles. Considering he was a stiff betting underdog in the process, Campbell has earned this spot as much as anyone.
When both of these fights end, it will set up a terrific battle to determine true division supremacy. Sprinkle in Juan Diaz coming off a big win over Michael Katsidis, Manny Pacquiao's potential return to the division after his showdown at welterweight with Oscar De La Hoya, Jose Armando Santa Cruz hopefully getting the shot that he deserves, as well as the emergence of Anthony Peterson and things are looking pretty good at 135. No matter how you mix them up, a competitive fight should come out of it.
WHEN THE BELL RINGS...
Let's start with Casamayor vs. Marquez first and finish with the more exciting of the two fights.
Casamayor is as crafty and as cagey as they come. He's slick, smart, and sneaky dirty, utilizing elbows, low blows and headbutts if necessary. Can there be any doubt that a cut comes into play here?
What I have seen from El Cepillo over the past couple of years is a constant decline. Yes, he did look better against Michael Katsidis his last time out, but Katsidis can't spell defense and was caught cold twice early in the fight. Even with that in mind, Katsidis still led on two of the three scorecards before being saved by the ref in the 10th.
Casamayor's legs are bad. They clearly tire throughout the fight, which has caused him to become increasingly hittable by the straight right hand. Early in this fight, expect it to be fought at a measured pace with the fighters generally splitting rounds. After 4 or 5 rounds, Juan Manuel Marquez will begin to find his groove when he realizes Casamayor doesn't shoot his left with the same force as he did in the past and it's about half the speed of another well-known lightweight southpaw in Manny Pacquiao. That being said, Casamayor isn't going to just sit back and be outboxed either. He will try to force things and look to use his head in there. When push comes to shove, Casamayor is a fighter and will do anything to win. That said, as the fight wears on, expect things to be clear as to who has more in the gas tank.
As for the more exciting of the two battles, Nate Campbell has the size and stamina advantage and was clearly doing himself a disservice in the past by sucking down to junior lightweight. Joan Guzman has the skill and handspeed advantage, even with this being his lightweight debut. Some might argue that Guzman is at no size disadvantage, but I don't buy it. He is the smaller guy and has only fought smaller guys.
Campbell and Guzman are both strong-willed men who are not going to shy away from an opponent. Only a few short months ago, we saw Campbell fight Juan Diaz in a manner that almost everyone would have expected to net him a beatdown, but that wasn't the case. Campbell was the bully in there and Diaz was beat down over the course of 12 rounds. For Guzman, think back to September of '06 when he fought Jorge Barrios. The Sycuan Warrior didn't go in there and try to counter early. Instead, he jumped on the wild slugger and took charge of the fight from the onset. Part of me expects a similarly aggressive Joan Guzman early in this one as opposed to the guy we saw simply out-boxing Humberto Soto earlier this year.
Nate Campbell is steady in there and, not much unlike Joan Guzman, has some versatility. Campbell can bang, he can box and he likes to do a little of both. I just don't expect him to be able to do much of the latter in there.
After starting very quickly, look for Joan Guzman to settle in and use his terrific counter punching abilities to bank rounds and jump out to an early lead, but don't expect Nate Campbell to be deterred. In a fight that will remind us of Miguel Cotto vs. Antonio Margarito in general flow with a lot less drama, expect The Galaxxy Warrior to begin chipping away and wearing down his faster, slicker opponent. Guzman has shown some stamina issues in the past and Nate Campbell's consistent work, especially to the body, should make that a serious factor.
THE CALL...
I like Juan Manuel Marquez to get a pretty clear decision over Joel Casamayor. I think the Katsidis fight was the last big effort we're going to get out of El Cepillo and when we combine that with the counter punching abilities, as well as the terrific combination punching of Juan Manuel Marquez, I think this one is pretty clear. It won't be pretty, it won't be exciting, but I anticipate that it will be without controversy.
Campbell–Guzman is not quite as easy to call. Will Campbell have enough to close the show and shave Guzman's points lead or will Guzman be able to move constantly to combat Campbell's pressure, stamina, and commitment to body punching? A draw wouldn't surprise me in the least bit here, but I am going to tab Joan Guzman by close, difficult and controversial decision. Both guys will think they won and they will each have a case for their argument. The crowd will lean towards Campbell due to his consistent aggression, but in the end, the judges will vote in favor of the challenger by close, and possibly split decision.
BONUS PICK...
Nothing has changed since the last time Mora and Forrest fought. Vernon Forrest still isn't the same fighter we once knew a long time ago. Mora will again give him fits with his awkward style, handspeed, ring smarts and good legs. Forrest was always front foot heavy, but as his career has gone on, it has become increasingly apparent. Mora will continue to show angles, give movement, fire off in combinations and look to get to the body when inside. Forrest will stalk, fire the right and make it clear that this is a much more motivated version, but it won't matter because Mora will be better too. No more early round jitters. Give me Mora by another close decision. In a fight that betters the first in what both guys do in the ring, we won't see a change in the outcome at all.