While it's not often that I get a chance to read any other writers out there, I was recently forwarded an interesting article written by Matthew R. Grizzle over at RingTalk.com stating the top 10 reasons why Miguel Cotto is going to beat THE Manny Pacquiao. For the record, from now on, I will refer to the Filipino superstar as "THE" Manny Pacquiao because, quite frankly, he's just that good and until someone beats him, he is the most significant boxer in the sport. After all, there's a reason why NIKE chose him to do a commercial alongside basketball superstar Kobe Bryant. But I digress...back to the article, while I find Mr. Grizzles points entertaining, there were a few assumptions he made and I'd like to counter with my own top 10 reasons why THE Manny Pacquiao will beat Miguel Cotto.
[Note: Mr. Grizzle's reasons are listed first and italicized.]
10.) Speed - Even though this asset goes to Pacquiao, Cotto will know how use it in his benefit and counter; making it to his advantage; not the Pacman's.
The fastest guys that Cotto has faced were Shane Mosley and Zab Judah. Although both were able to get work done, to his credit, Cotto was indeed effective against them. That being said, neither one of them are as fast as THE Pacquiao and neither one of them fight with same type of awkward flow as THE Pacquiao. With the way he jumps in and out, I highly doubt THE Pacquiao will allow Cotto to find the same type of rhythm he did against Mosley and Judah. Even Morales, Marquez and Barrera, who I consider to be better "technical" boxers than Cotto, were having trouble landing cleanly. When it comes to speed, THE Pacquiao will still have the edge as his hand and foot speed will be superior to anyone that Cotto has faced thus far.
9.) Power - Pacman has tons of pop, but Cotto still has the advantage here, especially given his size advantage and body attack.
Cotto has the advantage? Does he? Based on what? I can't remember the last guy that Cotto really demolished since moving up to welterweight. In fact, I don't think he's put anyone to sleep recently. It says here that the jury is still out on who has the advantage here, but given the way he put Hatton to sleep, I'd almost have to favor THE Pacquiao.
8.) Punch Selection - Cotto knows what to throw and when to throw it.
What the heck does that mean? Does that imply that THE Pacquiao does not know what to throw and when to throw it? On the contrary, I think THE Pacquiao has shown a brilliant ability to stick to a gameplan and throw punches exactly when they need to be thrown. Just look at his last two bouts with Ricky Hatton and Oscar De La Hoya. With Hatton, he baited him into focusing solely on that that right hook before **BAM** that left hand came out of nowhere. With De La Hoya, he constantly mixed up his punches...upstairs and downstairs...landing the lead straight left with ease. De La Hoya was EXTREMELY confused in there. That's not to take anything away from Cotto, who also does a good job of mixing his punches up, but to imply that THE Pacquiao doesn't do the same is an oversight in my opinion.
7. ) Size - No explanation needed here, Cotto is much bigger!
Is he really that much bigger though? I mean, that's what they said about Hatton and De La Hoya and come fight night, neither one of those guys was that much bigger. We're not talking about the same type of size disadvantage that Cotto saw against Magarito. While he might be a few pounds bigger, he's certainly not going to dwarf THE Pacquiao. The fact that Cotto will have to get down to 145 pounds is only going to limit the amount of weight he's able to put back down after the weigh-in. It says here that people are going to be shocked to see that THE Pacquiao is nearly the same size as Cotto when they step in the ring.
6.) Boxing Skills- As much as Manny has improved, he still isn't as technically sound as the Puerto Rican.
Says who? What's your definition of being technically sound? It's certainly not technically sound for Cotto to back up and just squat along the ropes. THE Pacquiao has proven that he can fight going forwards and backwards. He can counter, feint, stick to a gameplan, adjust and he certainly has all the same tools as Cotto so I don't know what makes him any less "technically sound" as the Puerto Rican.
5.) Defense - Cotto has very good and probably underrated defense. He will be able to parry Pac's straight left hand with ease.
Underrated defense? Call me crazy, but it seems like Cotto's face gets busted up in just about every major fight I see him in. Clottey, Margarito, Mosley, Judah...all of those guys busted and/or bloodied his face. His defense may be underrated, but it seems like everyone else is able to land shots to his dome with no problem. He might be able to parry THE Pacquiao's first straight left hand with ease, but what's he going to do about the other 10 punches flying at his face? I think Mr. Grizzle may be overrating Cotto's defense a bit as it seems like it's pretty easy to split his guard every time he pins those mitts to his ears. That's a habit that Cotto is not going to be able to break with just 12 weeks of training and if little ol' me can pick up on that, I'm quite sure Freddie Roach has seen it and will have THE Pacquiao working on uppercuts like crazy during training camp. I honestly don't think it's the straight left that Cotto will have to worry about in this fight. Personally, I think THE Pacquiao's defense is what's being underrated here as I've never seen him as busted up in the face as I've seen Cotto.
4.) Experience - Both men have significant ring experience, but I think Cotto's will better suit him for this fight; mainly because of his fight against Shane Mosley.
As far as experience goes, I really don't think it gets any bigger than fighting Oscar De La Hoya in Las Vegas. In fact, I'd say when it comes to experience, Cotto will have a lot less of it come fight night because he'll be fighting in Vegas in front of a ton of screaming Pinoy fans as opposed to fighting at MSG in front of a bunch of Puerto Ricans. In fact, 9 out of THE Pacquiao's last 13 fights have been in Vegas. Cotto, on the other hand, has only had 1 of his last 13 fights in Vegas and that was the fight he lost to Margarito.
3.) Respect - Cotto will show respect for Manny's power instead of simply running in like an amateur a la Hatton.
I think Marquez, Barrera and Morales all showed respect too, but it still didn't get them the victory. In fact, I think it's just the opposite. Cotto already said that he's not impressed by anything that THE Pacquiao does, which leads me to believe that he doesn't respect him at all. That's not to say that he's going to go rushing in at THE Pacquiao, but I also don't think he'll respect Manny skills and punching power, which will work against him just as it has with all the "bigger" opponents that THE Pacquiao has faced. When it comes to war, the element of surprise is key. That's the genius of THE Pacquiao...his opponents always seem underestimate him.
2.) Will - Both men have great heart, grit and will, but Cotto has had to show it more often, and has no problem doing so.
Just because Cotto has had to show his heart, grit and will in more fights than THE Pacquiao, it doesn't mean he has more of it. As far as fighters are concerned, I think both men have a tremendous amount of heart, grit and will, however, I'd argue that the fact that Cotto has had to show it more means that he's more flawed when it comes to his skills.
AND THE #1 REASON WHY COTTO WILL BEAT PAC
1.) Ring IQ - Cotto simply understands the game slightly better; giving him the knowledge and know how to beat Pac.
For being the #1 reason, that's probably the weakest reason of all as there's really no proof whatsoever that he "understands the game slightly better". In fact, as I just stated above, the fact that Cotto has been in more wars recently (Clottey, Margarito, Mosley, Judah) than THE Pacquiao tells me that he doesn't understand the sweet science better. Not to mention, THE Pacquiao's ability to follow a gameplan tells me that as long as Freddie Roach comes up with the plan, THE Pacquiao will have no problem whatsoever executing it.
Of course, everything that has been written by myself and Mr. Grizzle is nothing more than an opinion. Technically, you can probably argue the bout either way and come up with a logical reason why either fighter will win (although I think my reasoning is a lot more sound). That being said, I think it points out what makes this fight so great. Instead of a mismatch, we have a legitimate clash where either fighter has an opportunity to pull out a victory. Despite all the key factors, it'll likely come down to heart and determination...which fighter wants it more and which fighter will push himself to the next level to get the victory. I for one, am extremely eager for them to make this bout and hopefully it'll provide the fireworks that we're all expecting. In the end though, I think THE Pacquiao will once again prove his doubters wrong.
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