On July 11, the UFC® will host its biggest fight card in history, which is taking place at the Mandalay Bay Events Center in Las Vegas, Nevada and rolling live on Pay-Per-View. This card is so dynamic that not only are the two championship bouts going to be intriguing, but the undercard bouts are laced with explosive fighters and much back-story drama.
John Fitch (22-3-1) vs. Paulo Thiago (11-0-0)
A great deal of that drama will center on John Fitch, the number three-rated fighter in the world in the welterweight division, against a very tough Brazilian Jiu-Jitsu expert, Paulo Thiago. If you remember, Thiago was last seen knocking out Josh Koscheck at UFC® 95 back in February. There are a couple of things that stir the soup here, and make it just a little hotter. One is that Koscheck is Fitch's training partner and teammate. Two is that many people, myself included, feel like it was a very premature TKO, and that the ref should have let them (Koscheck and Thiago) fight. So one might presume that there is a level of revenge mixed into Fitch's training and mindset. He says not though, and for the most part, he is probably correct. He also said, "You can't make any mistakes against him (Thiago)."
Fitch is training hard and not taking the undefeated Thiago (11-0) lightly. Fitch is a level-headed and focused fighter; a man who went to Thailand to train kickboxing after his loss to Georges St-Pierre. Think about that for a second. There are a ton of places in the U.S. to train Muay Thai and there are great senseis/coaches here, and more modern high-tech gyms to train in. You travel halfway across the world to train in a foreign place, where it will be more difficult and will keep you out of your comfort zone constantly? That's commitment and focus ... and maybe just a little bit of fighting Zen spirituality mixed in.
Thiago, on the other hand, does have knockout power, although most of his wins, expectedly, have come by way of submission (seven in total). Anyone that is 11-0 and has been a six-time Brazilian Jiu-Jitsu champion and is fighting in the UFC® can't be underestimated. The advantage though is in Fitch's favor. He has the edge in the stand-up and he's an excellent wrestler as well, which should neutralize a lot of Paulo's Jiu-Jitsu. This may be a close fight though, and if given the opportunity in the stand-up or for a submission ... watch closely, because at that moment, when a mistake is made ... that's when the cool, calm head of John Fitch just might look for a little revenge for his good friend Mr. Koscheck.
Dan "Hendo" Henderson (24-7-0) vs. Michael "The Count" Bisping (18-1-0)
Now as far as drama goes, we don't have to look much further than to the two guys that have publicly displayed the fact that they really don't like each other. We are of course speaking of Michael "The Count" Bisping against Dan "Hendo" Henderson. If you follow the UFC® or MMA even a little, then you have to know that these guys, and their accompanying personalities, are more of a contrast than even their fighting styles. Bisping is cocky, to say the least, and might even be accused of believing his own press clippings. He also sports an impressive 18-1 record and along the way has beaten some tough opponents like Chris Leben, Matt Hamill and Charles McCarthy, among others. Tough opponents that he beat, yes; best in the world type guys? Champions? Not quite. He was beaten by Rashad Evans (when in some people's opinion Rashad was not as good as he is now), and he barely beat Hamill. So, there are still many questions to be answered by "The Count," and now that he's dropped to 185, it may be a better weight class for him overall, but it still won't mean that he's stronger than Henderson.
"Hendo" is the consummate pro; calm, confident, doesn't really trash talk, and has spent his entire career evolving from an Olympic wrestler to a full-fledged, all-around MMA fighter. This guy's resume looks like a who's who of MMA hall of famers and champions. He's fought the best; from both Anderson and Wanderlei Silva, to both Nogueira brothers, to "Rampage" Jackson, to Mauricio Rua, and even Renzo Gracie. Some of those he's lost ... and some he's won. Along the way he's also managed to pick up a couple of championships in PRIDE®. So one might argue that this is just another day at the office for him. Does that bode well for his motivation, or mean that he won't be as fired up as Bisping is, who is arguably facing his toughest opponent since Rashad Evans? Bisping is saying what he should be saying; that he has more speed than Henderson, his stand-up is better and that "Hollywood" (Henderson's other nickname, and you know you're a badass when you have two nicknames) is just plain old at 38. The reality is that Henderson has developed a very strong stand-up game, has a fierce, powerful right hand, and has learned over the years to allow the fight to come to him. His is a hard mind to confuse, and a difficult game plan to distract. That may be the difference in this fight.
Look for Henderson to be good enough in the stand-up to rattle "The Count's" cage and get under his skin, where incidentally he seems to already be. Then, once Bisping gets a little worn down and frustrated, Henderson will find the opening and go for the takedown. If and when Dan gets the takedown and gets in Bisping's guard, it's probably all over. "The Count" does have great conditioning, and that's an immense ally; however, I see Henderson's eventual and inevitable ground game taking over and being the deciding factor. It should be close and it will be good, as both of these men are going to bring their best, and that's substantial.
Now as far as those other two big fights going on at UFC® 100, let's see, who is it again? Oh yeah, that Lesnar guy against Frank Mir, champion against champion; and the dynamic Georges St- Pierre versus the explosive and number two-ranked Thiago Alves?
Hmmm ... think about that for a week. I will share some insight and a prediction or two with you next week.
Thanks for the read and have a powerful day!