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BREAKDOWN: MAYWEATHER VS. MARQUEZ

By Joe DeMaria | September 18, 2009
BREAKDOWN: MAYWEATHER VS. MARQUEZ

Don't miss all the action when unbeaten multi-division champion Floyd Mayweather Jr. makes his anticipated return to the after nearly a two-year layoff to face arguably the second best pound-for-pound fighter in the world, lightweight champion Juan Manuel Marquez, this Saturday, September 19th, at the MGM Grand in Las Vegas and televised live on HBO Pay-Per-View. What's at stake? How will the fight play out? Check out the FightHype Breakdown to see why you should tune-in to find out the outcome.

WHAT DOES IT MEAN...

The dog days of summer are over and with that, the dead season for boxing bids us farewell…thank God! The return of boxing kicks off with a big event, the return of Floyd Mayweather.  It's sort of difficult to figure out what this fight really means because it's between two men who are two weight classes apart and regardless of who wins, the next set of fights were a natural without this one happening. 

Is it for the #1 pound-for-pound spot?  Maybe. I guess we need to see what the winner looks like before we go there.  Is it for the stronger negotiating position against Manny Pacquaio should he get by Miguel Cotto?  Perhaps, though it all goes back to how the winner looks and if the fight sells.  Is it for welterweight supremacy?  Hmmmm…no, don't think so.

If Floyd Mayweather does as expected and comes out the winner, the path is cleared for a showdown with the winner of the Miguel Cotto vs. Manny Pacquiao fight; or one might think.  Insert the Arum factor as well as the latest comment from Cotto that win or lose, he welcomes a rematch with the Pacman and suddenly, things aren't so clear.  The likelihood is that Floyd has a better chance of sharing a ring with Manny Pacquiao than Miguel Cotto, based solely on the sheer magnitude and dollar value of that fight. There is always Shane Mosley, who seems to be eternally without a dance partner after decimating Antonio Margarito. Not only is that fight makeable, but it is also one that the public wants to see. But the most likely scenario, to me, would be Floyd going after that green belt that he loves so much and targeting Andre Berto. The fight would not be hard to close on at all and while it would offer the smallest total value, it would afford Floyd the opportunity to demand a huge share of the purse and net him the lowest risk opponent of the aforementioned fighters.

For Juan Manuel Marquez, a win here would be the crowning achievement, the final piece in a storied, Hall-of-Fame career. While Marquez is already considered the greatest of his former Mexican featherweight counterparts in Marco Antonio Barrera and Erik Morales, beating Floyd Mayweather would elevate him even further and put his name in the discussion of which fighter is the greatest of this era. While few might grant him that distinction, his name would most certainly need to be mentioned. The opponent Marquez wants most is Manny Pacquiao and the most direct path to that fight is a win against Floyd Mayweather. No, it is not the easiest path, but it certainly creates a clear line to the man who holds a close decision win against him after the first fight ended in a draw.  But will that fight be the easiest to consummate?  I am not so sure about that. In fact, I tend to think that a Mayweather rematch would be easier to make as long as Floyd would be willing to give a little in negotiations and throw a few million extra at the man who would have just beaten him.  If Marquez loses, there is always the trip back to lightweight to fight his mandatory, which will come out of the Katsidis vs. Escobedo fight, and if that is of no interest, maybe he could settle in at junior welter and get a look at what Timothy Bradley plans.  But in the end, it is crystal clear that Marquez wants one man and that man is Manny Pacquiao.

WHEN THE BELL RINGS...

Two counterpunchers who are both extremely accurate and willing to wait on their opponent tend to leave the audience a little restless. Add to that the fact that each of these guys make fight changing adjustments in the middle rounds and you might begin to worry that this could be a lot of hype for a little action. The good news is that there are always intangibles that can overcome these types of style issues. Let's hope we are fortunate enough on Saturday to get one of those.

So what are the intangibles here? 

On Floyd's side, it's all about hating when someone else steals his spotlight. While Floyd retired and willingly left center stage in the boxing world, he never expected that Manny Pacquiao would put on two dominating and devastating performances against opponents he beat in much less convincing fashion. Suddenly, Pacman was the talk of the sport and in addition to being universally recognized as the most exciting guy in boxing, he was now the consensus pound-for-pound champion. Now the tables have turned and Floyd gets a guy that Pacquiao is 1-0-1 against, with neither of those fights being convincing at all. Think a blistering type of performance is on Money Mayweather's mind?

For Marquez, it is about legacy. He knows he is in tough on Saturday night and he knows he is going to need to be at his absolute best if he is to have a chance in there. Odds are he is going to have to walk through fire to get to Mayweather's body and begin trying to time him, but he is willing to. Juan Manuel Marquez is a proud man who means it when he says he has to be ready to die in there. When a fighter goes in with that mindset, suddenly they become a tad less risk averse, as has been the case for Marquez over the past few years. Don't tell Marquez this fight is about Floyd's return or that he is a comeback opponent because to him, this is about making a point on Mexican Independence Day in front of what will be a pro-Dinamita crowd.

So how does it all play out?  Most of this depends on whether or not Mayweather has accumulated much ring rust over the past 21 months. I am not entirely concerned about the size or even the speed. Marquez can deal with speed and will likely give away around 8 or 9 pounds. What I am concerned with are Marquez's legs. When I watched his fight against Juan Diaz, I was surprised by the ease with which the Baby Bull pushed Marquez around. Even in victory, I found myself feeling as though Dinamita was a fighter who remained supremely skilled, but was beginning to see his legs go, which often happens when many fighters, who are approaching their late 30's, have had a ledger full of wars on their docket. Then I watched Juan Diaz struggle to move Paul Malignaggi, who has no power to keep anyone off of him. Sure, Paulie boxed and moved, but even on the inside, Baby Bull was unable to move Malignaggi with the same ease he was able to push Marquez around. In short, it really put the stamp on my concern about Marquez's legs.

Early on, it will be interesting to see these two size each other up. Mayweather will be getting reacclimated with facing an opponent who actually wants to hurt him and Marquez will already be looking to determine what type of mid-fight adjustments he will need to make in there. Expect things to be close, occasionally heated and very tactical through the first 4 or 5 rounds. In fact, don't be surprised to see Floyd get hit with something that many are not expecting. This will serve as the necessary wake up call and knock loose most of the remaining rust.

By the middle of the fight, it won't be Mayweather's speed that takes over so much as it is his strength combined with his speed.  Marquez will have taken the role of the aggressor and Mayweather will begin to pick his shots and back Marquez off on the inside which a combination of movement and a little grinding in the trenches. Once Floyd realizes he can win this one down the stretch on boxing ability, he will take control.

Marquez will remain game as he looks to offset the speed with his jab, right and left hook to the body like no one else does, but Mayweather will return fire with the straight right increasingly as the rounds go by.  Is the rib injury an issue?  Who knows? My guess is that it isn't and it won't be. 

In the end, Marquez will be valiant, he will take risks and every ounce of pride that he has will shine through, but it just won't be enough. At this stage of their careers, Mayweather is bigger, stronger, faster, better defensively and every bit as smart in there and once the rust comes off, that will be clear.

THE CALL...

When the fight was first announced, I immediately thought stoppage inside of 6, but as I began to break it down a bit, I found myself not giving Marquez enough credit and giving a 21-month idle Mayweather too much credit. Besides, even though he wants to make a statement, banging a guy like Marquez out is not his style.

After some interesting early rounds and maybe even a moment of slight drama for Floyd, he will get things in line and turn this into a fight that is comfortable for him.  Mayweather will take over from the middle rounds on, as he just has too much of everything for Juan Manuel Marquez, and cruise to a decision victory.  117–111 sounds about right to me. Expect it to be unanimous and let's hope that we can look forward to Mayweather moving on to one of the big name welterweights, if not Pacquiao next.

THE UNDERCARD...

On the same card that Marquez and Juan Diaz fought on earlier this year, Chris John and Rocky Juarez fought to a draw.  John apparently got sick just prior to the fight and entered the ring with remnants of a virus. The knock on Juarez has always been the same thing…he gets stuck in one gear and never turns it up unless his opponent is willing to stand right in front of him. That won't happen here. John will use angles, activity and some movement to outbox Juarez. Rocky will have his moments, land the lef thook and probably even buzz the champ, but it won't be enough to close the gap and begin to chip away at the lead Chris John will have jumped out to. A unanimous decision win for John is the call in a fight that is good, but not as dramatic as the first one.

The fight of the night will happen well before the main event as Michael Katsidis and Vincente Escobedo engage in a battle that will most certainly see some bloodshed. Both guys are offensive minded, willing to get hit and like to throw punches – anything can happen. I lean toward Katsidis in this one mainly because he knows how to get through wars a little better than Escobedo and I expect him to begin wearing Escobedo down as the fight goes on, but nothing would surprise me. Officially, I will take Katsidis by decision in a fight that everyone buying this pay-per-view better be in front of the television for.

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