Don't miss all the action this Saturday, May 1, when undefeated multi-division champion Floyd Mayweather takes on WBA welterweight champion Shane Mosley at the MGM Grand Garden Arena in Las Vegas, Nevada and televised live on HBO Pay-Per-View at 9PM ET/6PM PT. What's at stake? How will the fight play out? Check out the FightHype Breakdown to see why you don't want to miss this fight!
WHAT DOES IT MEAN...
The event of 2010 is here, and as far as crossover appeal and magnitude, there is only one way this one can be topped...for the winner to fight Manny Pacquiao. Floyd Mayweather faces what most expect will be the toughest and most dangerous fight of his career. Conversely, most don't see it that way for Shane Mosley as he has already stared down a prime Oscar Dela Hoya, Vernon Forrest and Winky Wright, from welterweight on up to junior middleweight.
That is why people are buzzing; there is the sense that Floyd will be tested and if Mosley brings his A-game, there is a very real chance Mayweather will get hurt at some point and potentially have to dig deep to win.
This is what fans want and this is what fans are more than happy to pay for; the chance to see one of the current generation's great fighters forced to show everyone that he not only has the skills, but he also has a well that runs deep, very deep, and if he needs to find that something extra to win, he will. At the same time, there are those that want to see the opposite. They want to see Shane Mosley prove to the world that his need to win can overcome Floyd's skills and, at the same time, give us a window into what kind of fighter Mayweather truly is, because we often learn the most about a fighter's greatness after a big loss, not a big win.
If Floyd Mayweather does as the oddsmakers tell us he will do, there is only one fight people want to see next and that is the Manny Pacquiao mega-event. The problem here is that I am not so sure it ever happens, regardless of how much money is involved. You have two egos at play and these two egos already have healthy enough bank accounts, so without getting into detail on the drug testing issue, I am not sure an agreement can be reached unless each side is prepared to bend. So if it isn't Pacquiao next, what would be good enough to capture the public's attention? I suppose if the fight against Mosley meets the expectations, there is always a rematch, though I doubt that would happen. How about a fight against Timothy Bradley moving up in weight, provided he gets past Marcos Maidana? Could be. But if Money May really wanted to go the legacy route, a catchweight fight at 155 pounds, or around there, against Sergio Martinez for the middleweight championship would mean a lot and it would create the kind of buzz Floyd is looking for; real danger against a fighter who holds the title two weight classes above him. If Mayweather loses on Saturday, as long as it is not a brutal beating, we can expect him to enforce the rematch clause. After all, it was put in there for a reason, so I doubt he would choose not to use it.
For Shane Mosley, a win here is the cherry on top of a great career. Floyd Mayweather can force the rematch, as well as the rubbermatch, and Shane can get shut out in each one, but it won't matter. He will be the guy who took Mayweather's "0", and when you add that to his titles and the names he has shared a ring with, his legacy is set. If Shane were to lose this weekend, he can still get himself a big fight or two as well. There is the rematch with Cotto up at 154 should be beat Yuri Foreman in June, a potential Pacquiao fight if he gets a couple wins in there, or maybe even a Margarito rematch in the not too distant future. Shane Mosley has been in enough competitive fights to make landing an interesting rematch not too difficult.
WHEN THE BELL RINGS...
It seems like Floyd Mayweather has morphed into a bit of a slow starter when he is facing someone who presents a level of danger, and you can rest assured that this is by design. It's not so much that he is starting at a more measured pace, but in reality, he is just figuring out the puzzle that is in front of him. We didn't see that type of approach from Mayweather against Juan Manuel Marquez, but that was mainly because Marquez was smaller, slower, weaker and had nothing for Floyd...especially after Marquez blew up in weight to make the fight while Mayweather blew off the 144 pound catchweight and happily paid fine. But Shane Mosley is different; he has handspeed, punching power, is physically stronger than Floyd and is the first true welterweight Floyd has fought in three years.
From the outset, look for Shane Mosley to approach Floyd carefully...not because he is concerned about getting hurt, but because he really does not want to show him everything. While Mosley is generally the type of guy that is going to look to back you up, land in flurries, and then hold on the inside, expect him to take a different approach here and stay a little more patient. This has less to do with respecting Floyd's power, but more to do with respecting Mayweather's ability to adjust and remain one step ahead of his opponents. With that comes an interesting conundrum for Mosley, because while he does not want to come out guns blazing and show Mayweather everything, he also cannot let Floyd get too comfortable in there. Sugar Shane MUST land something in the first round that forces Mayweather to not only respect him, but also plants the seed of doubt that he is not sure he can allow Mosley to land clean too many more times.
This approach will provide Mosley with the opportunity to stay in the fight longer and potentially keep the Mayweather adjustments to a minimum, at least half way through the match.
As they make their way through the first couple of rounds, Shane Mosley will have his moments by playing the part of the busier fighter who is coming forward more consistently, while Floyd Mayweather will have his moments by landing the cleaner shots as he catches Shane on the way in, as well as countering Mosley's wider punches.
Subtle changes are the key for Floyd though. As Mosley begins to turn up the intensity in there and push forward with increasing regularity, Mayweather will move a bit more. The jab to the body will land, Floyd will then circle to his left. Another jab to the body will land, Floyd will circle to his right and pop upstairs before moving again. The key for Mosley will be making the most of the moments when Floyd decides to stay flat-footed, as he has been more apt to do at welterweight. Mosley will need to forget the head and be happy to land downstairs...when he does, he needs to do in combination and with a lot of force before even thinking of coming back upstairs.
As the fight approaches the later rounds and Floyd is happy to box, make Mosley miss, land a clean shot or combo and be gone, Shane must continue to let his hands go, offering the impression of effective activity, combined with keeping Floyd aware that hands are coming back at him, is essential. Mosley will take a little something off the shots to keep the hands moving, and then fill the dead space with some harder shots in hopes of sneaking something big through.
Stamina has never been an issue for either fighter and I do not expect it to pop up in this one either. Money May will make his living using defense to set up his offense in there, while Sugar Shane will use his offense more and more in place of his defense.
But which one will come out on top?
THE CALL...
Zab Judah was able to cause problems for Floyd Mayweather, not only because he had hand speed, but because he had the straight left out of a southpaw stance. Early on, Ricky Hatton even caused Floyd to have some moments of discomfort because he had extremely fast, good feet. Shane Mosley is not a southpaw, but if he was, I would think long and hard about this one. Shane Mosley also does not have the same kind of foot speed or footwork that Ricky Hatton had, but if he did, that would even make me put a bit more thought into this prediction. The good news for Mosley is that Kenny Bayless is the referee and he will let the fighters do their thing in there, so Sugar Shane will be able to get rough inside, but how much will that really help? Mosley has not shown much in the way of an effective inside game in quite some time.
At 38, coming off of a 15-month layoff and two camps in a row without a fight in between, I just do not see Shane Mosley setting himself up with the best chance to beat someone the caliber of Floyd Mayweather. Mosley needs to be active to be at his best, and even then, this fight is a headache for him. We don't have the same guy that beat De La Hoya at welterweight almost ten years ago; that guy was an offensive machine who would shorten distance quickly with a jab, dig to the body and throw when his opponent threw. This version is more apt to paw with a jab and flinch when his opponent throws. Defense was never his forte, but he moves his head even less now too.
Mosley is a strong welter though and he will try in there. Recently, we have even seen him make some adjustments mid-fight against Miguel Cotto, when he stopped following him around and began to chip away late behind a varied attack both downstairs and upstairs. But this is not Miguel Cotto; this is a defensive wizard, with better feet. Granted, Mayweather will not be able to get the kind of respect Cotto could because he does not punch nearly as hard, but Mayweather is extremely accurate and lets his hands go quickly. So when Mosley tries to get to the body on the inside, Floyd will sit back patiently and shoot that straight right mixing in an uppercut. Once the fight returns to distance, Money May will get back to befuddling Mosley with movement and a jab that he shoots downstairs and upstairs.
After some interesting early rounds, Mayweather will begin to take over the fight. It may be 2 rounds a piece after four, but I expect it to soon be 7 rounds to 3 after ten.
Floyd Mayweather by convincing unanimous decision is the call here in a fight that may or may not entertain, depending on what you go in looking for. So enjoy the hype, but prepare for a clear and decisive winner. 117111 sounds about right, maybe 116112 if one of the judges feels a little generous.
Questions...comments...agree...disagree? Send me an email at jdemaria@fighthype.com.