Don't miss all the action this Saturday, August 7, when WBC & IBF jr. welterweight champion Devon Alexander defends his titles against former champion Andriy Kotelnik at the Scottrade Center in St. Louis, Missouri and televised live on HBO Boxing After Dark at 10PM ET/PT. What's at stake? How will the fight play out? Check out the FightHype Breakdown to see why you don't want to miss this fight!
WHAT DOES IT MEAN...
The Junior Welterweight division is very similar to the Super Middleweight division; there are a ton of interesting fights and no huge names to speak of since Manny Pacquiao has grown quite comfortable up at welterweight. Now, while I say "no huge names", I am speaking in the present tense because while none of these guys are stars today, there is a very good chance that one or two of them will become part of the next generation of boxing elites that the sport is eager to discover.
Devon Alexander is one of those potential future stars. At the age of 23, his ring maturity is well advanced. Combine that with terrific physical tools, a skillset that is fundamentally sound, as well as the mentality of a fighter who is willing to box, and you can see why his future is bright. A win here may give the fans the 140-pound fight they are most eager to see, a showdown with Timothy Bradley. Bradley continues to impress as he recently moved up to welterweight for a temporary jaunt, taking care of a solid, though unspectacular, opponent in Carlos Abregu. If Alexander were to lose, he would still have a bright future and could come back for an immediate rematch, or even go after any one of the other top 140-pounders, whether it were Marcos Maidana, Amir Khan, or even Lamont Peterson, but make no mistake, this a prelude to his coming out party.
Andriy Kotelnik is the ideal definition of a solid pro. He has a solid background, good fundamentals, and he always shows up in very good shape. There are a few losses on his ledger to the likes of Junior Witter, Souleymane M'baye and most recently Amir Khan, but he was never outclassed in there and he always remained game. His biggest wins have come against top level competition, like Muhammad Abdullayev, Gavin Rees, and a close controversial win over Marcos Maidana last February. There is no question, Kotelnik can handle himself in there and a win would firmly place him among the top in the division; a loss, on the other hand, would be a blow at this stage of his career because he is solid, yet not all that marketable over here, and unless he would be happy netting some fights in the comfortable confines of Hamburg, Germany, he might be out of luck.
WHEN THE BELL RINGS...
Youth and flash will test itself against experience here, or at least that is how it would appear on the surface.
From the outset, Alexander will do everything in his power to keep his high-speed power boxing rolling along. Some movement left and right, a nice combination, an attempt at drawing Kotelnik in where he can counter, and then do it all over again.
As the rounds pass, highlighting the significant speed difference will be Alexander The Great's primary objective. For Kotelnik, working to time the St. Louis fighter, as well as get inside where he can find the body a bit, will be the way to go. Kotelink does not want to get into a jabbing contest, nor does he want to allow Alexander to find his groove in there, so disruption is the first step, but making him pay is just as important.
The middle rounds of this fight will tell us all that we need to know. Can Kotelnik begin to shorten the distance on his terms, not Alexander's, and when the distance is shortened, can he be effective or will he simply be on the receiving end of multiple combinations that he is unable to come up with an answer for? In short, if the rounds don't start looking a little different than the rounds we saw at the start of the fight, it will not be a good sign for the former champion.
THE CALL...
I think Andriy Kotelnik is a reasonably solid fighter and he will certainly give whatever he has in there, but I think Devon Alexander might have the highest upside of all these extremely talented junior welterweights. Now, whether he reaches that level is another story, but I do not see this Saturday night as much of a danger area for him. Anything Kotelnik does, Alexander does better, faster, and with more power...plus, remember the maturity level of this 23-year-old.
I don't see a knockout here though because Kotelnik is very tough and crafty too. Maybe Alexander eats a little something here or there to keep him on his toes, and maybe he even slows down a bit as the fight wears on, but I don't expect it to be enough to prevent anything but a clear victory for the hometown fighter.
117–111 is about where it will end up, and hopefully this will be the final hurdle to making the fight against Timothy Bradley.
BONUS PICK...
If the undercard fight does not deliver, I will be extremely surprised. In fact, it wouldn't shock me if it ends up as the best fight for the rest of the year. Granted, Carl Froch and Arthur Abraham might have something to say about that, but only time will tell.
The fighters have a similar style and a similar mentality. Tavoris Cloud is much younger and punches harder than Glen Johnson ever dreamed of, but he does not have near the experience and has not been tested the way he will be this Saturday.
Both guys are going to come forward, meet in the center of the ring, and bang. Johnson will look to work the body and slow the younger man down while Cloud will hit anything he sees moving...very hard...and very violently. There can be no question that Cloud will look to become only the second man to stop Johnson, but that could also be his biggest mistake. Look for an early surge by Cloud as Johnson stays active and begins to slow the undefeated fighter down. A Johnson rally will make it closer, but I don't expect it to be enough in a rousing battle that is sure to entertain. 116–112...maybe an even round makes it 116–113 to the dismay of many watching live, but either way, just like in the main event, I like the younger man to come out on top.
Questions...comments...agree...disagree? Send me an email at jdemaria@fighthype.com.