Don't miss all the action this Saturday, November 20, as middleweight champion Sergio "Maravilla" Martinez puts his titles on the line in hopes of exacting revenge in a rematch with Paul "The Punisher" Williams at Boardwalk Hall in Atlantic City, New Jersey and televised live on HBO. What's at stake? How will the fight play out? Check out the FightHype Breakdown to see why you don't want to miss this fight!
WHAT DOES IT MEAN...
November has been good to us, with can't miss weekend after can't miss weekend, and there is a great chance that this Saturday will provide us with the best fight of all. It doesn't hurt that the legitimate middleweight championship will be on the line as well.
The first time these two fought, it was a fight of the year quality battle. Ebbs and flows, exchanges and great skill, knockdowns and high drama – we would be fortunate if this fight is half as good as last December's.
If Sergio Martinez were to win here, the natural next step would be to setup a trilogy with Paul Williams. Odds are very good that both fights will entertain, and even though he is the champion, Maravilla would be all too willing to give it another go around with Williams. With that said, a loss here may very well net the same result, another fight with Williams. Should the best laid plans fall by the wayside, Martinez has talked about stepping up to challenge Lucian Bute or perhaps even the winner of the Jean Pascal/Bernard Hopkins fight later this year. While Martinez would love to get a crack at Floyd Mayweather, the likelihood is that the dollars and cents would not match up well with the historic significance. Either way, it would be rather surprising if the next matchup for Martinez isn't something entertaining and important.
For Paul Williams, the future is not quite as clear, and that is mostly due to the fact that he really doesn't have a weight class that he likes to call home. Williams has talked about going back down to welterweight for a shot at Manny Pacquiao or Floyd Mayweather, though the Al Hayman connection would probably prohibit a shot at Money Mayweather and I struggle to see much interest from Team Pacquiao. So that brings us back to the potential trilogy with Martinez. Win or lose, it just makes the most sense. So while 154 pounds seems like it is the ideal weight for Paul Williams, the options there are just too limited. Cotto? Too risky for Top Rank. Angulo? No shot. Cintron rematch? No thanks. Dzinziruk? Terrific fight, but Team Williams will be looking for upside. Perhaps James Kirkland could be a guy Williams finds appealing if he is capable of getting his career back on track, but that could take some time.
WHEN THE BELL RINGS...
The first go around, each man took this fight on short notice. They were both training for vastly different opponents, but when Kelly Pavlik pulled out as the scheduled opponent for Williams, it opened the door for Sergio Martinez. Each fighter thinks they will have an advantage this time and because of that, I see it as a wash. Sure, both fighters may not have been at their best, but they were also facing an opponent who was a smidge below their peak as well.
From the outset, expect both men to set a fast paceÂ…it's how they fight, and it's when they are most comfortable. Williams will look to come forward behind a long jab and a flurry of combinations, while Martinez will bounce on the outside, strike, slide and reassess. Each fighter will look to set a distance they find most comfortable, and interestingly enough, that space is about the same for each of them. Paul Williams wants you on the end of his shots where he can land and keep you from jumping inside, while Sergio Martinez wants you just out of range so he can avoid everything and jump in. It will be telling to see which fighter can set the tempo and make that distance work for them first.
Early on, The Punisher will appear to be the fighter having more success by being more active as Maravilla gradually locks in and finds his zone. Martinez will land some hard counters, but won't quite match the activity of Williams. By the third round, that will begin to change a little – suddenly, the distance that seemed to suit The Punisher will look like a disadvantage as Maravillia gets his bounce going, leaves his hands down, slips shots and gets to the challengers body with increasing regularity. Do you like activity, or do you like clean punching? This is a question the judges will be faced with.
As the middle rounds approach, expect another shift as Williams' constant activity begins to land with a little more frequency, and just as soon as everyone thought the champion was going to take over, PWill will find Martinez to be a little easier of a target. The long jab as he sneaks the left behind it while Martinez works harder to find openings. Ebbs and flows…these two know no other way. Williams will be far from fresh due to the body work by Martinez and clean counters upstairs, combined with the sheer pace of the fight, but the same goes for Martinez, who uses his legs about as well as anyone in the sport – but don't expect the back-and-forth nature of the fight to stop here.
The fight will be very close going into the championship rounds. In fact, it will probably be on the table. Terrific two-way action, extremely high skill level, and an uncertainty as to what the cards might say make for about as dramatic of a final 12 minutes as can be.
THE CALL...
So what happens? Yep, you guessed it – another shift in action. The only thing we have yet to see is the second wind from the Argentinean star…and towards the end of the ninth round, we may get the clue in that it is coming.
We saw Martinez do it against Kelly Pavlik after looking great from the early part of the fight to the middle, only to have his larger opponent begin to take over with power and size, until of course, Martinez got his second wind and seized control right back with one of the most one-sided rounds you will see in a competitive fight. There is no doubt that the blood Kelly Pavlik was spilling had something to do with that, but that blood was caused by something – Sergio Martinez's fists.
Once Martinez finds that extra gear, he will regain control. Make no mistake, Paul Williams will do everything in his power to fight his way out and leave his own imprint on the fight, but that may only leave Maravilla with more chances to counter.
Like I said, this fight can't miss. Mark it down as Fight of the Year for at least the next week, because I have a hunch Juan Manuel Marquez and Michael Katsidis will have something to say about it, and be happy that you are a boxing fan.
After twelve grueling rounds, this one will go to the cards. 115 – 113 sounds about right as Sergio Martinez retains his title with a well-deserved victory. I doubt it will be unanimous, so whether that means a split or a majority decision is your guess as much as it is mine, but there will be no guess work when it comes to determining what we just finished watching; the best big fight of the year so far.
Enjoy!
Questions...comments...agree...disagree? Send me an email at jdemaria@fighthype.com.