On the heels of Top Rank promotions laying out the groundwork for the first half of 2011 already, and the fact that their biggest cash cow, Shane Mosley, is not interested in working with them anymore, it's looking like 2011 is going to be a long year for Golden Boy Promotions (GBP). Oscar De La Hoya's baby is not looking anywhere near as flashy as it did a few years ago, when many had predicted that he would one day be as big of a promoter as Bob Arum and Don King. Then again, how can it when the average age of their three most profitable fighters is 41 years old?
GBP finds themselves in a position where they are just about out of time to develop their younger stars, who are moving much more slowly than they had anticipated. While Amir Khan and Victor Ortiz are fighting this weekend, and Saul Alverez just fought last weekend, it's pretty clear that at this point, these guys are a long ways off from carrying the company in the near future. Bob Arum and Don King were able to develop their younger stars because they had a large stable of veteran named fighters to match them up with, but Golden Boy doesn't seem to have that in any respect. While Arum and King could recycle their fighters, GBP is almost reliant on cooperation from other promoters to make fights happen.
On their official website, Golden Boy lists almost 70 fighters under their banner, but after taking a closer look, they're mostly younger fighters who may have just been signed. I can tell you right now that if Paulie Malignaggi and Sergio Mora are amongst the biggest name on their roster, they're headed for some serious trouble making marketable fights in the coming months.
Nate Campbell is retired, Joel Casamayor might as well retire, Juan Diaz doesn't seem like he cares about fighting anymore, Ricky Hatton is still listed as a fighter under them, funny enough, and Israel Vazquez was probably a punch or two away from being killed, although thankfully his manager, Frank Espinoza Jr., informs us via Twitter that he officially retired a couple of months ago despite actually considering fighting on after his lopsided loss to Rafael Marquez. Not to mention that we've covered the issues with Winky Wright in detail on FightHype. Those are your named fighters on GBP's roster who have one time or another been a champion; their new blood list, outside of Khan, Ortiz and Alvarez, doesn't fare any better.
James Kirkland is a gun-toting felon who may never get out of prison, Erislandy Lara is a virtual unknown at this point, and Lucas Matthysse may not have what it takes to make it at 140. Everyone else, again, are fighters that either have just been signed, nobody knows, or nobody is talking about. There is Danny Jacobs, but his KO loss to Dmitry Pirog isn't going to help his marketability.
Interestingly enough, one name isn't on their list any longer and that's Shane Mosley. I actually feel for Sugar Shane because as a partner for the promotion, GBP didn't go out of their way to get him a fight after he destroyed Antonio Margarito last year; at least, not as much as they would have to land Hopkins a mega-payday fight. Mosley's departure is probably the biggest indicator of how bad things are getting for GBP, and while I'm not a big fan of Top Rank either, I have to applaud the genius of Bob Arum for getting Pacquiao-Mosley done without any involvement from GBP and denying them a share (unless you count their small stake in Pacquiao) in what will surely be the biggest of fight of 2011.
Pacquiao-Mosley will do at least around 1.2 million buys, which by itself is more than three of GBPs four pay per view fights of 2010 combined. Hopkins-Jones II, Juan Manuel Marquez-Juan Diaz II and Shane Mosley-Sergio Mora did roughly 325,000 as a combined number. The fourth fight did 1.4 million, but that was Mosley's loss against Floyd Mayweather.
I'm not saying Pacquiao-Mosley is a death knell for GBP, but it is a great possibility that it's going to look that way after their contract with HBO is fulfilled at the end of the year. Hall of Fame trainer and close friend Jesse Reid said he wouldn't be surprised if GBP is going to go out of business. I can't blame him for thinking that, especially when you consider that when people realized the Titanic had struck an iceberg, the ship sunk in less than two hours. It's already looking bad and it's not looking any better for GBP.
Maybe I'm wrong and something is going to give in 2011 - a change in business model, personnel, etc. - but one thing I am certain about is that there is absolutely no doubt that Richard Schaefer and Oscar De La Hoya are sleeping nervously right now as their 2011 outlook is looking gloomy.