Don't miss all the action this Saturday, March 12th, as Showtime and HBO go head-to-head in dueling cards. On Showtime Pay-Per-View, WBA jr. middleweight champion Miguel Cotto defends his title against the always wild and dangerous Ricardo Mayorga at the MGM Grand in Las Vegas, Nevada. At the same time, middleweight king Sergio Martinez defends his crown against undefeated WBO jr. middleweight champion Sergiy Dzinziruk at the Foxwoods Resort Casino in Mashantucket, Connecticut and televised live on HBO World Championship Boxing. What's at stake? How will the fights play out? Which one should you watch? Check out the FightHype Breakdown to see why you don't want to miss either fight!
WHAT DO THEY MEAN?
Any interesting fight weekend with dueling cards is never ideal, but it beats the alternative
no boxing at all.
On Showtime PPV, Miguel Cotto defends his junior middleweight title against one of the best salesman in the sport, Ricardo Mayorga. This fight is supposed to be a tune-up for Cotto as he looks ahead to a summer rematch with Antonio Margarito, and down the line, potentially another rematch with Manny Pacquiao. For the most part, it's difficult to really quantify what the result here means for either guy. If Cotto wins or loses, the Margarito fight is still very marketable and would make plenty of sense. Sure, we would all love to see Cotto against Alvarez or Angulo or Kirkland, but I wouldn't expect any of those matches to happen. When you look at Mayorga, a win here could mean the Margarito fight this summer as well, though I tend to think MargaritoCotto II is a given no matter what happens. Who knows? Would anyone be that surprised to see Mayorga coming off of a win here and getting a crack at Pacquiao? Hell, with Don King as his promoter, they could probably carve out a fight against Floyd Mayweather fairly easily. The only thing we do know is that if Mayorga were to lose, recycling him again would be a very difficult task.
Over on HBO, Sergio Martinez defends his middleweight championship against Sergiy Dzinziruk. In many ways, this fight is being overlooked, and much like CottoMayorga is seen as a tune-up for Martinez as well, but make no mistake, Dzinziruk is going to be Maravilla's toughest fight yet. While Martinez winning will keep him asking for Mayweather or Pacquiao to move up and fight him at a catchweight below 160 pounds, he should just get the thought out of his head. Neither Floyd or Pac are going to fight him. So where could he look for a big fight? The Super Six winner up north at super middleweight could be an option for him, though he seems to just be getting comfortable at middleweight now at his somewhat advanced age of 36. James Kirkland is on the comeback trail after recently being released from prison, and Dmitry Pirog has the looks of a guy with the ability to become a prime time fighter, but are either of those fights all that sellable? A loss would probably mean an immediate rematch against Dzinziruk, because with his style, no one would be banging down the door to fight him. For Dzinziruk, the options are probably a little clearer. With a win, the Sergio Martinez rematch becomes his biggest fight. With a loss, a trip back to junior middleweight in an effort to clean out the division would be his most likely path, unless this fight is that good that the public demands to see it again.
WHEN THE BELLS RING
Miguel Cotto and Ricardo Mayorga have the potential to put on a very entertaining fight. It will all come down to how much risk Cotto wants to take, and how serious Mayorga was about training. If we are to take both men at their word, Mayorga has put himself in the best shape we have seen since his days at welterweight, and Miguel Cotto is irritated enough by El Matador's mouth that he's looking forward to shutting it. Good!
Early on, Mayorga will look to take advantage of Cotto's tendency to start slow and feel his opponent out. He will look to impose his size and strength on the smaller Cotto and land something to remind the Puerto Rican star that a fight against Yuri Foreman is in no way a barometer for what it is like to be hit by a puncher at 154 pounds.
The chance of some fireworks in the early rounds is quite high because we know Mayorga will look to make this a high contact fight, and when it comes to Cotto, his reflexes are not quite what they once were and his feet are not exactly quick when it comes to getting out of harm's way. As the fight reaches the midway point, expect it to be thoroughly enjoyable if you like slugging; Mayorga will headhunt and try to bring back images of Antonio Margarito while Cotto will patiently jab and fire his left hook to the body with increasing frequency, and that will be the key. A quick lead for the brash Nicaraguan is something I expect, but little by little, Cotto's calculating approach and Mayorga's unnecessary wildness will begin to turn the tables and even things out. Would it be surprising to see Cotto caught with a looping shot he cannot avoid and in turn get hurt pretty badly? Not in the least.
As the fight gets through the middle rounds, it will be very interesting to see if Mayorga has enough gas in the tank to keep working in there. On the flip side, one has to wonder how Cotto will react to getting hit by a puncher once again, because ever since Margarito, he doesn't seem to respond in the same way he once did. So we know what we are looking for, but what will end up happening? Back to that in a minute.
Sergio Martinez and Sergiy Dzinziruk also have the ability to put on a very entertaining fight. It will almost be a polar opposite from CottoMayorga in terms of approach for both men, but their styles do mesh rather well. Martinez is a guy that reacts exactly how you would like when he gets hit. He doesn't go crazy and he doesn't turtle up; he gets energized and works harder to find the spots to land his big shots.
Much like Cotto, Martinez tends to be a bit of a slow starter. Not in the sense that he won't let his hands go; instead it takes him a couple rounds to find his comfort zone. Once Maravilla is standing in front of his opponent with his hands at his side, alternating between leading and countering while remaining at the perfect distance, you know he has found it. Dzinziruk will apply pressure, but it is anything but wild pressure; instead he steadily comes forward behind a very good jab, fires in combination when the opening is there without wasting shots, and mixes in plenty of angles to find the right spot and avoid being in the wrong place at the wrong time.
From the outset, Dzinziruk will look to keep Martinez off balance behind the very stiff left-handed jab, consistently changing angles, and offsetting the Martinez flow with varying distances
a half step back before a jab and a step forward, a half step forward behind a jab and another step forward. After the first three rounds or so, it will be clear that Sergio Martinez is in a real fight with a highly skilled fighter who is willing to stick to a plan all night and keep him off balance.
Maravilla will make adjustments and give himself the room necessary to stay just outside of Dzinziruk's range before firing the overhand right, jumping in to get to the body, and then jumping back out. This fight will remain close throughout, with changing tides minute by minute, sustained action, and a high level of skill.
As the fight enters the championship rounds, there is a very good chance it will be on the table, and there is almost no chance the fans will be disappointed.
THE CALLS
Interestingly enough, we have two fights where the oddsmakers clearly do not expect the public to spend much time backing the challenger. Mayorga can be found as high as +750, and Dzinziruk at +425. In many ways, both men are live underdogs at those numbers.
Mayorga is live because he can punch, Cotto his hittable and does not react that well to getting nailed clean, especially by a puncher. As I mentioned earlier, would anyone be that surprised to see Mayorga hurt Cotto with a looping shot he cannot avoid? With that said, after some rocky moments, I do expect Cotto to settle down, begin working the body consistently, and take the air out of Mayorga. I don't think it will happen right way, and I don't think it will be without incident, but eventually I do expect it to happen. In an entertaining fight, I expect to see Mayorga stopped toward the end of the ninth round while close on all scorecards. For all the flack this fight has caught, it will prove to be a worthwhile scrap.
As for Dzinziruk, he is live because he can fight with a good deal of skill and has the type of approach that can offset Sergio Martinez's abilities and difficult style in there. This fight will go back and forth, and after this Saturday night, everyone will know who Sergiy Dzinziruk is. In the end though, Martinez has that extra gear, and he will find a way to win those late rounds and work to exploit the one flaw Sergiy Dzinziruk has in there, and that is his tendency to be a little straight up and down at times. By no coincidence, "Razor" Dzinziruk will lose a razor thin decision
115-113 or right around there will be the margin in a terrific fight.
Enjoy the weekend!
Questions...comments...agree...disagree? Send me an email at jdemaria@fighthype.com.